Clearing the Browser Tabs - Perry’s Plan Gets Numbers Wednesday Edition

Rick Perry’s economic plan has made the expected big splash and the smart folks like Jim Pethokoukis are already getting into the particulars. Jim got some information from the campaign about what sort of revenues we can expect, but the final number depends entirely on how it’s scored. If we use the normal CBO static scoring method, the government will get about $4.7 trillion less between now and 2020. Under the dynamic scoring method, though, that number is only about $1.7 trillion. If his spending cap works as planned, we’ll have a balanced budget by 2020, which is a very good thing. You can read the plan for yourself here.

There are a lot of assumptions built into the score beyond the normal. Not only did the Perry campaign have to made a good guess about how much more quickly the economy would grow compared to the current forecast, it also had to estimate how many people opted out of the current system and used the flat tax option. That last number is critical. If few people take the flat tax option, the revenue numbers won’t move very far from the CBO’s original projections and, I believe, economic growth won’t rise nearly as quickly as the Perry people think. I haven’t seen a good estimate anywhere for what that number will be, so I can’t honestly tell you if Perry’s projections are in the neighborhood of plausibility or not.

I’ll have my own thoughts on the plan a bit later in the day. I started a post last night, but it ran far too long for me to finish it and get to sleep at a reasonable hour. What I’ll say now is that I’m a bit disappointed that a man known for boldness offered us a plan that’s not all that bold.

Last night’s show was a hoot. We had a special guest spokespuppet who filled us in on Occupy Whatever’s demands and got a little lesson on money and power. I’ll have that post up later tomorrow as well, as work and such allows.

And now, links!

• If you’re the praying type, Turkey could use all you can spare.
• Remember how Candidate Obama didn’t like how George Bush used so much executive power? I wonder where that guy went.
• Student loans have done quite a bit of damage to this country, more, probably, than any of us fully realize.
• Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich have scheduled a debate of sorts on November 5th. The two of them will sit down and talk about our entitlement problems and how we might solve them before they swallow the entire federal budget. I think this is a brilliant idea. It’s what happens when politicians are more interested in being leaders than in being elected. Good for them.
• Wait a minute. I thought our President was the Most Intelligent Man Ever to Hold the Office. Why in the world can’t he do simple math?
• Yes, Herman Cain has the swag. He also has the lead even after his last debate performance, which a number of Very Smart Pundits told me would end his campaign.
• Paul Ryan is going to war against Barack Obama. Rick Perry, on the other hand, is going to war against Mitt Romney and Herman Cain (via memeorandum). Remember what I said about leading versus getting elected?
• I haven’t followed Adam Corolla’s career very closely, but maybe I should. He’s built a pretty impressive podcast despite a lot of discouragement.

Other Posts of Interest:

• Clearing the Browser Tabs - The Open Letter Gets Return Mail Friday Edition
• Clearing the Browser Tabs - It’s A New Race Thursday Edition
• Clearing the Browser Tabs - Herman Cain Ascending Tuesday Edition

Tags: Linky Love

Category: Links