Can Sarah Win An Election? Why Are We Even Asking This Question?
The Sarah Palin media analysis has gotten just a teensy bit out of hand. Here’s the headline for a story written by ABC News’ Political Director, Amy Walter.
Sarah Palin Can Excite a Crowd, but Can She Win a Presidential Race?
That’s actually more mild, and a far better headline, than the stinger she gave the link on Twitter.
Palin can rev up a crowd, but can she rev up Republicans?
Here in one sentence is the nonsense to which Palin has driven the MSM. Of course she can rev up Republicans. Who does Amy Walter think is coming to her speeches, the staff of the Democratic National Committee? Okay, there might be a few of them in the crowd, taking notes they can pass along to their hacks at Media Matters, but the bulk of the crowd is Republican. And not just any Republicans, but excited Republicans who’ll stand out in 90-degree heat or a blustery 40-degree day or drive a couple hundred miles to see her speak in public. Stacy McCain saw her Republican-revving prowess with his own eyes back in 2008, when she played second banana to John McCain.
So, to answer the question “Can Sarah Palin rev up Republicans?”, the answer, clearly, is “Duh!”.
The headline question isn’t any more tricky to answer. In fact, I don’t see how it’s a serious question at all.
I won’t exactly break any news if I note that elections are won by crowds. The politician who gets the biggest crowd to the ballot box wins the race. Right now, Sarah Palin is the candidate (or would-be candidate) who draws the biggest crowd, so it stands to reason that if she runs, she won’t have a huge problem getting that crowd to flock to the polls and pull the lever next to her name.
Walter notes a couple recent polls that show Palin isn’t terribly popular as a candidate even though she has very high name-recognition and that enthusiasm isn’t high among those who would vote for her today. That’s certainly worth a small amount of concern, but only a small amount, because these polls omit something very important — a point that smart pundits as Charles Krauthammer and Tucker Carlson miss as well. Sarah Palin isn’t a candidate for President.
You wouldn’t think that should matter, but it does. Voters can like Palin as a potential candidate, and Palin’s approval numbers show that folks do like her despite a three-year MSM/Democrat demonization program, but most won’t go all-in for her until she actually commits to the run. If that happens, she’s start to persuade voters to vote for her and the polls will change.
Those in the media and the Republican Party who make light of Palin’s ability to draw a crowd do so at their own peril. The GOP is going to need her star power, either as the nominee or as someone who can drive lots of enthusiasm for anyone she chooses to support. They can’t afford to alienate her through neglect or insult. The MSM, on the other hand, have been wrong about her so often that they simply can’t afford to look as clueless as Walter’s article makes ABC look. Sarah Palin, like her or not, is a serious player on the political stage for at least the next couple of years, if not longer, and no one with a vested interest in how the next election turns out should look on her as anything less.
Other Posts of Interest:
- So Long Sarah, but Not Goodbye
- Watch the MSM Build Their Election Narrative in Real Time
- The Campaign Starts Tomorrow for Cain, Others
Category: The 2012 Horse Race
The establishment Republicans have been trying to run the social conservatives out of the Party for a couple of decades now. Each election they have had any luck at making them sit at home, they lose. Still, being establishment Republicans, they haven't twigged to the connection. Now the establishment Republicans want to get rid of those silly TEA Party types.
Governor Palin can bring the social conservatives and the TEA Party types to the ballot box. I don't know of anyone besides Michelle Bachman and Allen West that can do that and I don't know that they can do it as well.
If the Republicans dis Sarah expect a serious third party this cycle and, soon, to see The Republican Party go the way of the Whigs.
I don’t think that’s entirely true, Pete. Social conservatives are a rather large part of the GOP establishment, which is why libertarian Republicans have had such a hard time getting a foot in the establishment door.