We’re Winning, But We Haven’t Won

Matthew Kiessling has an excellent post at Smart Girl Politics that ought to be required reading not only for Tea Party folks eager to lay a whipping on the would-be totalitarians in November, but for Democratic strategists who are wondering why their weasel-clever plans are going down harder than Lindsey Lohan on a line of blow. Something amazing has been happening in primaries all over the country — race after race has been moving toward the right. It started in Florida with upstart Marco Rubio and has spread from GOP strongholds well into states that were formerly untouchable for Republicans.

In May, the first signs that there were real teeth to this conservative movement, and thus consequences for sitting Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle, emerged as three term Republican Senator Bob Bennett  was defeated in the first round of nominating ballots by two candidates who enjoyed the support of various Tea Party groups.  In the June 22^nd runoff, Mike Lee narrowly defeated Tim Bridgewater to secure the nomination, and he currently holds a commanding lead in the polls over Democrat challenger Sam Granato.

In Alaska last month, Senator Lisa Murkowski was defeated by Tea Party favorite Joe Miller, who enjoyed both the backing of former Vice Presidential candidate and former Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin, as well as the Tea Party Express, who ran ads in support of Miller in the waning days of the primary.  Miller is currently polling 6-8 points ahead of Democrat challenger Scott McAdams.

In Nevada, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid faces off against former Assemblywoman Sharon Angle in November.  In the primary, the Tea Party backed Angle defeated GOP establishment candidate and former Chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party Sue Lowden.  At present, Angle is running dead even with Reid, after failing to capitalize on momentum which saw her jump out to an early lead over the Majority Leader in most major polls.

And while Delaware is only the most recent example of a conservative candidate toppling an establishment GOP incumbent, perhaps the most telling sign of things to come is in the race to replace the late Democratic Senator Robert Byrd, of West Virginia.  From a legislative perspective, Democrat Governor Joe Manchin is by all accounts, likely more conservative than three sitting Republican Senators.  Granted, those three senators represent Massachusetts and Maine, but nonetheless, Manchin is a Democrat in a historically labor heavy state where Democrat registration outnumbers Republicans at nearly 2-1 rate….Yet, with each passing week, conservative businessman John Raese narrows the gap.  What was once a 16 point lead for Manchin in mid-summer has dwindled to a mere 5% according to Rasmussen’s most recent polling numbers.

And the rightward lean has been chasing Democrats in good standing off of issues on which they would have run proudly just a year ago. They’ve backed off of some of the most egregious provisions of Obamacare and, in some cases, they’re actually running against their own votes. Democrats have spent three times as much in ads criticizing their signature issue than they have supporting it. And things are getting worse.

Ace found a campaign ad in which Harry Mitchell, an incumbent member of the House in Arizona’s 5th District, doesn’t even bother to mention that he’s a Democrat. It does, however, feature people saying “I’m a Republican” five different times. Labor unions, which you normally couldn’t separate from Democrats with a crowbar, are directly opposing several incumbent Democrats because they did not toe the progressive line and big-money donors; tired of being kicked in the teeth by opportunistic ideologues, are heading for the lifeboats as fast as their feet can carry them. Faced with much smaller campaign coffers than usual and poll trends that have them heading into used car salesman territory, candidates are feeling more than a little bit panicky.

That doesn’t mean that landslide has arrived. Voters can be fickle and the gains we on the right have made can disappear in a day or two if we think we can coast into November. Matthew has rightly noted that we are pushing all the issues to the right, but we certainly can not stop now. We have to keep pushing the bedrock ideals of conservatism — Less spending, government in the hands of the people, taxes responsibly asked for and spent — all the way through Election Day. Then, we have to make sure the people we’ve elected make good on their promises. Until then, we haven’t won a thing.

Other Posts of Interest:

• Fiddling While Maryland Burns
• He’s Not Moderate. He’s Random. And Now He’s the Democrats’ Problem
• Harry Reid to Illinois Lt. Governor: Do My Bidding or Face My Wrath!

Tags: 2010 Election, Democrats

Category: Our New Democratic Overlords