The Strange Puzzle of North Dakota
The New York Times has found itself a gen-you-wine head scratcher today in the state of North Dakota. Its government is running a surplus well over a billion dollars and is considering a slew of tax cuts and rebates. Homeowners are seeing their home values increase and there’s no flood of foreclosures. Unemployment is ridiculously low and employers are struggling to fill some 13,000 jobs. Car sales are up almost 30 percent from last year. And the reporter is simply baffled. How could such a thing be?
Here’s something the reporter didn’t get. North Dakota also educated its students at a pretty high level. The American’ Leglsiative Exchange Council’s 2007 Report Card on American Education ranked North Dakota #8 in the country despite being ranked 46th in funding and having no charter schools.
Sheesh. This is a real puzzler. Let’s take a look at the “odd collection” of clues the Times found.
North Dakota’s cheery circumstance — which economic analysts are quick to warn is showing clear signs that it, too, may be in jeopardy — can be explained by an odd collection of factors: a recent surge in oil production that catapulted the state to fifth-largest producer in the nation; a mostly strong year for farmers (agriculture is the state’s biggest business); and a conservative, steady, never-fancy culture that has nurtured fewer sudden booms of wealth like those seen elsewhere (“Our banks don’t do those goofy loans,” Mr. Theel said) and also fewer tumultuous slumps.
Yes, those are certainly odd clues. How can any state know steady prosperity by employing the outmoded notions of wise use of its own resources (both natural and human), a state government that spends wisely, a reluctance to jump into the latest trends, and an ever-present sense of responsibility?
It has to be a fluke. And don’t you know that the entire last half of the article heads in just that direction?
In truth, economic analysts said North Dakota has already begun showing some of the painful ripples seen elsewhere. Some manufacturing companies here have lately made temporary job cuts as orders for products have dropped nationally. Shrinking 401(k)’s — “201(k)’s,” some here grump — are no bigger here than anywhere else. And, most of all, drops in oil prices and farm commodity prices are sure to sink local fortunes, experts said.
An economist at Moody’s Economy.com recently warned that conditions in North Dakota had “slowed measurably in recent months, and the state is now at risk of being dragged into recession.” In an interview, Glenn Wingard, the economist, described North Dakota as “an outlier” up to now in a broad, national slump.
“It’s not going to hold,” Mr. Wingard said, suggesting that the state would now probably have to suffer through a reversal, or at least, a slowdown, much like other places that benefited from rising fortunes tied to energy, high oil prices and booming farm commodity prices.
Well, sure. That’s what they said but that doesn’t make it so. Notice that Dour Economist Wingard marshals no proof at all for his assertions. He warns and suggests. He uses words like “at risk” and “probably” and even backs off his prediction of recession for the state by saying it could experience “a slowdown”. In short, Wingard has nothing but a guess.
It’s a shame that the New York Times doesn’t even have that much.
(via Stacy McCain and Jammie Wearing Fool)
Other Posts of Interest:
- Reuters: We Know the Future!
- Bill Ayers? Awww…He’s a Pussycat and Barack Hardly Knows the Chap!
- I Love You, America
Category: Oh, THAT liberal media., The Good Old US of A
