A Return to Realpolitik?
Ross Douthat, in a post titled “unrealpolitik” asks an interesting question. After he recounts that russia could make our lives much more difficult with Iran and Afghanistan if we take a hard line on them, or arm the Georgian military with truly modern weaponry, he comes to the real nut of the matter:
Is the fate of Abkhazia and South Ossetia really worth escalating the already-substantial risks we face in the Middle East and Central Asia?
If that were the stakes, I would say no. Let Russia have the two little breakaway provinces they’re been agitating in for 15 years or so and pacify Georgia with some happy talk. No big deal.
But those aren’t the stakes. Russia isn’t interested just in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Vladimir Putin’s goal has always been much larger. He wants Georgia and the Ukraine and Azerbaijan and Estona and Latvia and Luthania. If he can’t have them in physical form, he’ll take their submission and fealty. If he can’t have that, then he’ll make darned sure that they fear him and count us as feckless liars.
And, really, what can Russia do to us regarding Iran that it’s not already doing? Putin is not going to sell Mad Mahmoud an entire nuclear weapon. The cost to him is far too great than any benefit he’ll get out of spiting us. He’s not going to make Ahmadinejad work harder to get a nuke or to pump more money into Hezbollah. He’s redlined both of those already.
Douthat doesn’t believe that Russia can project power globally nowadays. Well, it sure looks to me like they have, doesn’t it? The power that Russia is projecting right now is neither hard nor soft power, it is simply power. Vladimir Putin has demonstrated that, so far as Europe and Asia is concerned, he can take whatever he wants and the rest of the world will do nothing at all about it.
Two Presidential candidates have been talking about his country for three days now, at least. The Secretary of State of the most powerful nation in the world has been burning up the phones all week. The President of France has traveled to Georgia to mediate a cease-fire.
If that’s not power projection, then there is no such thing. Douthat discounts this because Russia can’t occupy Georgia, but does it really need to? Georgia’s military is severely damaged. Russian aircraft can fly over any point in the coutnry almost at will. Russian tanks could drive from north to south if they wanted to and there’s not much the Georgian army could do about it. Already, Putin has violated the cease-fire agreement with impunity. What more would occupation give Russia than it has right now?
I’m concerned that Russia’s invasion of Georga is going to drive us fully back into the cynical arms of the realpolitik folks, whose policies I consider amoral and narcissistic. It seems to me that Douthat, one of the Republican Party’s prized young thinkers, is pretty much fine with a return to the days when we backed whatever local tyrant suited our needs and played Risk with Eastern Europe and the Middle East as our game board. I could be wrong about that, but it looks like he’s at the point of throwing up his hands and saying “Oh well. What can we do?”.
If we do go back to those days, it will be an unmitigated disaster. We will never be able to repair the damage our betrayal will cause. It’s taken over 15 years for the Iraqis to trust us again after we let Saddam Hussein slaughter them in 1991. It will take much longer if we hand Eastern Europe back to the monstrous tyranny that Vladimir Putin is trying to rebuild.
Other Posts of Interest:
- The Russian Bear is Roaring Again
- Russia Takes South Ossetia, Eyes the Rest of Georgia, Seeks to Oust Georgian President (Updates: A Couple of Likely Reasons)
- Russia Presses the Advantage, Captures Undisputed Georgian Territory.
Category: Alliances and Allies, Anti-Americanism, Fighting the Islamists, No More Tyrants
Yup, we need to suffer some now to prevent a much larger suffering later. Why not do today what costs little in order to put off until tomorrow what will cost significantly more than little?
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 08/14/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Nice posting!!