Sadr’s a Hundred Miles Away, Son. Ready to Strike!

You know, I’m not surprised that the average American gives conflicting signals about what they think about Iraq. I’d be pretty confused if all I had to read were the occasional MSM stories. Let’s take as an example some recent reporting on Moqtada al-Sadr.

Yesterday, the AP published this story, which said that Moqtada al-Sadr was ready to get out of politics and take his Madhi Army to war. Now, if you’re the average American, you’re wondering how in the world he could do that, considering that said army has been getting a smackdown from the Iraqis. At least that’s what the news stories have been reporting, basically BUt no, says the AP. He’s like Loren Wallace!:

By snubbing the give-and-take of politics, al-Sadr would have a freer hand to carve out a kind of parallel state with its own militia and social services along the lines of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a Shiite group founded with Iran’s help in the 1980s.

It also would carry potentially disastrous security implications as the Pentagon trims its troops strength and Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki finally shows progress on national reconciliation.

“Muqtada has shown a great deal of patience not calling for an all-out war yet with so much pressure on him,” said Mohan Abedin, director of research at London’s Center for the Study of Terrorism and an expert on Shiite affairs. “The Mahdi Army is by far the most powerful Iraqi faction. It can cause damage on a massive scale if it goes to war.”

Al-Sadr’s next move is still uncertain, but he clearly holds important cards.

The Mahdi Army is estimated to have about 60,000 fighters—with at least 5,000 thought to be highly trained commandos—and is emboldened by its strong resistance to an Iraqi-led crackdown launched last month in the southern city of Basra and elsewhere.

Let me say that the estimation of the Madhi Army’s strength comes pretty much from the Madhi Army and its supporters and that this article reads a whole lot like an Madhi Army press release. I couldn’t help but note that there aren’t any quotes from anyone in Iraq at this moment. That seems significant to me. I would think that if you were goign to write a quick threat-assessment of the Madhi Army, you might want to be where they are, or at least recently were. But if you had done that, you might have written a report that looks a lot like this one, from Basra. Apparently, the Madhi Army which the AP’s resident expert in London says is the strongest faction in Iraq and is just raring to kick some government butt, isn’t anywhere to be found.

Young women are daring to wear jeans, soldiers listen to pop music on their mobile phones and bands are performing at wedding parties again.

All across Iraq’s second city life is improving, a month after Iraqi troops began a surprise crackdown on the black-clad gangs who were allowed to flourish under the British military. The gunmen’s reign had enforced a strict set of religious codes.

Yet after three years of being terrified of kidnap, rape and murder – a fate that befell scores of other women – Nadyia Ahmed, 22, is among those enjoying a sense of normality, happy for the first time to attend her science course at Basra University. “I now have the university life that I heard of at high school before the war and always dreamt about,” she told The Times. “It was a nightmare because of these militiamen. I only attended class three days a week but now I look forward to going every day.”

She also no longer has to wear a headscarf. Under the strict Islamic rules imposed by the militias, women had to cover their hair, could not wear jeans or bright clothes and were strictly forbidden from sitting next to male colleagues on pain of death.

“All these men in black [who imposed the laws] just vanished from the university after this operation,” said Ms Ahmed. “Things have completely changed over the past week.”

We’re supposed to believe that the emboldened Madhi Army, 60,000 strong, has completely given up its main base of operations and the city it’s held for somewhere around four years? Mmmmm…I don’t know that I’m willing to believe something quite so improbable. Well, there is this:

In the past month Iraqi troops have killed dozens of fighters, made 400 arrests and lost 12 soldiers. At the same time, it is thought that about 60 militia leaders have escaped across the border into Iran or are lying low outside Basra, working out their next move.

Okay, so we have 60 militia leaders either in Iran or hunkered down in the desert and we’re to think, given other reporting, that they are “emboldened”? One wonders where they might be hiding if they felt chastened or even defeated? Maybe it is that a lot of those 60,000 solders are oportunists, willing to work for the strongest bully boy to keep themselves and their families intact, but who will drop back into a life of respectability – the life they actually prefer – at the very first safe opportunity. Maybe, and I’m just theorizing here, the actual Madhi Army is the 5,000 strong “commandos” who were trained in Iran, who are equipped by Iran, and whose orders ultimately come from Iran. That seems more likely than a huge army that’s simply disappeared from it’s main bastion over the past couple few years.

No, it’s no wonder that folks feel awfully confused by the reporting in Iraq. Often times, the report depends entirely on who is doing the reporting and where the report comes from. At this point, I’m going to buy the one made by the person who is actually on the scene, quoting people who are actually in Basra isntead of the one that quotes an “expert” in London.

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Tags: Basra, Iran, Iraq, Islamism, Media Bias, Moqtada al-Sadr

Category: Fighting the Islamists, Oh, THAT liberal media.