New Hampshire Goes to McCain, Of Course
It looks like John McCain has won the Republican primary in New Hampshire. Hot Air, which also has a pretty good news roundup, breathlessly exclaims, “Disaster for Mitt!”
Yeah, well, let’s not start hyperventilating here quite yet. Back in 2000, John McCain beat George Bush in New Hampshire and Michigan but got trounced in South Carolina and eventually lost the nomination pretty badly. He sure looked like the guy back then coming out of the Granite State, then ended up getting his hindquarters handed to him on a platter. We’d be foolish to forget that.
Here’s his victory dance.
McCain won in New Hampshire mostly because he spent a huge amount of time campaigning there. He essentially neglected Iowa except for a few brief campaign stops, which garnered him a fourth place finish. The rule in the early primaries is that the winner is the guy who spend a ton of time there. McCain did that and he won.
Mitt has been spreading himself around quite a bit more. He has more money, a bigger operation, and the strength of one primary win and two second-place finishes. He is, in terms of actual election standings, still the front-runner. It won’t be played that way in the MSM (especially since McCain is the Republican Media Darling) but it is a fact.
Meanwhile on Fox, Fred Barnes has managed to cram his head up McCain’s hindquarters and has started to make for his liver. None of the analysts have managed to mention the Wyoming primary, which Romney won handily. That’s a bit of a shame because it is the first primary that chose delegates and it was a real win. I’d also be curious to see how the Republican voters voted (as opposed to the independent voters who came out big for McCain in 2000 and who were expected to do the same today).
Next comes Michigan, which looks like a McCain/Romney tussle, then South Carolina. That’s going to be the fun primary. Fred Thompson has gone all-in there and will prove tough, I think. Mike Huckabee has quite a few followers there as well. McCain will return to the scene of his embarrassing defeat eight years ago. Romney has put a lot of people into the state and won’t stop swinging until at least Florida. Giuliani is still out there and has to be considered, at least as a spoiler to McCain.
For right now, though, Romney’s still the guy. Remember that when you read all the swooning press reports.
No related posts.
Category: Featured, The 2008 Horse Race
"and the strength of one primary win and two second-place finishes."
Umm, I've been in India for a while, but I don't remember three elections. Romney came in second in Iowa and New Hampshire, but what state did he win? I'm willing to grant you that he's the front runner, but only because everyone else is so weak. In reality, there is no front runner in the Republican race, just a bunch of people that nobody really likes. And let's face it, if Romney can't win a neighboring state election, he's pretty damn weak. Of course, in the case of Romney familiarity really does breed contempt, so maybe he'll do better where nobody knows who he is. But let's be honest, given the current race, Romney is the front-walker. Ain't nobody runnin' in that race.
Romney won Wyoming.
Romney is still very much in this race and all these talking heads last night were just making me laugh. He's not my number one pick (that would be Hunter), but he's a good man and he'll get my vote super Tuesday, and I will say right now, Romney will win the nomination. You heard it here first!!