Winners, Losers, and a Surprise in Iowa

The Iowa Straw Poll is one of those venerable political traditions that just looks plain weird to someone not familiar with the intricacies of American Democracy.

Come to think of it, it looks weird even to those of us who are.

Basically, here’s how it works. Candidates come into Iowa and try their darndest to bag as many votes in the little mini election as possible. The day of the voting is a veritable orgy of canned speeches, candidate videos, and tents full of food and drink and various amusements paid for by the campaigns to “buy” a few more voters. Then, everyone (usually a few thousand people) votes and the winner gets some bragging rights. It’s not actually a primary, so no actual votes toward the nomination are at stake. But since it’s the first vote America gets to see, it does carry a bit of weight.

So it is a bit of a deal that Mitt Romney won the vote pretty handily, as he should have. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain decided to sit Iowa out, which left the field pretty much to Romney. the only question was how much he’d win by. Given that he spent approximately a bajillion dollars on barbecue and pony rides, he did just about what he was supposed to do. It gives him some leverage on Giuliani and McCain, which he very much needs.

The real winner, though, is former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who finished second over Sam Brownback (who spent not quite a bajillion dollars but pretty close to it). More on him later. Huckabee is very quickly becoming my favorite candidate in the race. I was talking about him to a friend of mine and I said that I could see Huckabee being one of the Top Three in the field come January. She didn’t think I was crazy at all because Huckabee was getting her attention, too. He’s performed very well at the debates, is solid on the issues, and gives speeches that are intelligent and approachable. His biggest problem has been money. He’s been overshadowed by the Big Three plus Brownback, which has put him well behind in fundraising. This is his chance. He needs to jump on this success and raise a bunch of money as quickly as he can. If he can do that, I can see him sticking around long enough to give Giuliani some trouble.

Now…Brownback. I realize that, as a mostly Social Con, I’m supposed to love him, but I really don’t. To tell the truth, he gives me the creeps. I think he’s tried way too hard to woo the social conservatives and it’s left him high and dry when it comes to issues that don’t involve abortion and Our Crumbling Morals. On those two issues he reeks of the sort of focused passion that after a while starts to look wild-eyed. He’s just not a viable Presidential candidate. I can’t really envision him in the Oval Office and on the rare occasions I do, the thought frightens me. It’s time for him to bail out of the race.

Same for Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter, who I’ll be sorry to see out of the race, and Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul who I won’t. Hunter and Thompson are very well suited for the coming Republican Administration’s cabinet and they’ll do a very good job. Tancredo is a one-note samba whose one note has gotten absorbed by pretty much every other candidate. He doesn’t stand out.

Ron Paul is just a hypocritical loon. He can’t seriously talk about teenier tinier government while sucking down 400 million dollars worth of pork himself. He may talk a good game but, like those in government he so strongly condemns, he’s full of it. I have no room for him or his locust plague of followers. I know the Constitution as well as them and don’t need his continuing lectures. What I need is real action, which is more than simply voting “no” on various bills and clucking the tongue at everyone else. If Ron Paul really felt as strongly as he does, and he was really the “straight shooter” he claims to be, he’d be doing more than playing the cranky old uncle at the debates.

Actually, he’d be a lot more like Newt Gingrich who had an op-ed on health care today that was co-authored by the aforementioned fast-rising Mike Huckabee.

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Category: The 2008 Horse Race