Kim’s Last Days?
Could it be that Kim Jong-Il has overplayed his hand?
This article seems to say that he might have.
THE Chinese are openly debating “regime change” in Pyongyang after last week’s nuclear test by their confrontational neighbour.
The Norks’ nuclear weapons test puts China in a very tight position. It has become increasingly hard for them to argue that Japan should not have nuclear weapons considering that an earlier missile test pretty much proved that Kim Jong-Il could hit Japan with a nuclear weapon. Now that Kim has demonstgrated that he could put a nuclear paylod on one of those medium-range missiles, China can’t argue very convincingly that Japan should not follow suit to defend itself.
In addition, North Korea has bought itself some independent sanctions aside from the newest UN resolution. Japan and Australia have said they are now barring any Nork ship from their ports and are not accepting goods from the rogue state.
Speaking of the UN resolution, the UN’s latest proclamation is the usual tepid combination of sanctions and ways that it can’t possibly enforce the sanctions combined with committees and promises to revisit the situation later on. Remember UN Resolution 1718. You’ll be hearing the number in the future as the US, Japan, and Australia plead for the international comunity to live up to its promises while the UN steadfastly gives us all reasons why it didn’t mean what it said.
Meanwhile, keep a keen eye on China. It is the lynchpin to this whole situation. North Korea has been a Chinese client state since at least the 1950s and, unless Kim has had a sudden streak of crazy, it will do as Beijing says. The fate of the Nork nuclear program rests with the Chinese ruling regime, which is why so much of our diplomacy has been aimed directly at Hu Jintao. If the Chinese are talking about regimme change, it’s a sign that things could move very suddenly and with not a lot of warning. Kim Jong-Il may not be long for this world.
It doesn’t improve the situation for the millions of North Koreans who are starving to death or who have been sent to Pyongang’s work camps to die, since China has never had a problem with that, but if we can keep the pressure on , it just might.
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Category: Alliances and Allies, Our Foreign Policy
Oh look out! North Korea will be the next Tibet!
Notice that the article you cite doesn't quote anyone in the Chinese government, just some academics and online commentators (and none of those by name). In short, it is trying to make something out of smoke. I can quote similar sources to the effect that the Chinese don't want to destablize a country on their border which has nuclear weapons. There is also the issue of how low our international standing has sunk that the Chinese have to bail us out of the mess that this administration created by five years of bluffs, hostility and neglect.
I think you missed the references to Chinese diplomats, including the quote from one of those diplomats. I expect that we here would accept the word of unnamed Chinese diplomats with exactly as much eagerness as we would those of unnamed US government sources trying to bring down President Bush, wouldn't you?
And as for the "five years", I do note that there were a few years prior to those five where North Korea got the nuclear material and technologyh necessary to build the weapons as well as the diplomatic cover necessary to do the work. That and you can hardly blame the President to insisting on multilateral solutions to the problem, considering how loud the call had been for "engaging our friends" to help solve our problems. That is, unless you want to admit to rank hypocrisy.
So China will show the U.S. and the Bush administration the proper, less cumbersome and more deft method of "regime change"? Should the CIA be taking notes?
I'd like to see this happen, to bail out the U.S. and the world, but I just don't see any institutional process in China for real meddling into another country's internal affairs since Deng Xiaoping launched the 4 modernization program. If this were Mao-era China, we'd long stopped debating this issue, 'cause he would have taken him out pronto. But China's foreign policy in the last 30 years have been pretty consistent. They just don't have the measures to institute such direct foreign meddling.
I love it! It's the new age of colonialism! We'll just divide the world between us and China and call it good. Don't like the 2 party system? Wait until you see the "2 party" world!
If True, This Is Big News…
The Australian is reporting that Beijing appears to be considering backing a coup against Kim Jong Il. There have been unprecedented criticisms against North Korea's leader allowed on the internet ever since the nuclear test.
THE Chinese …
If True, This Is Big News…
The Australian is reporting that Beijing appears to be considering backing a coup against Kim Jong Il. There have been unprecedented criticisms against North Korea's leader allowed on the internet ever since the nuclear test.
THE Chinese …
JT – Overreact much?
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