Comments on: It was a foregone conclusion, but…

By: Nicole Griffin

Nicole Griffin — Fri, 25 Feb 2005 00:29:20 +0000

Well, it surprised me when I first started reading it too, but France really is widely considered one of the countries where the constitution might fail to pass referendum. I've read this in plenty of European papers over the past few months, but just for example, from the Prague Post today:

Unlike Spain, where 77 percent of voters approved the treaty Feb. 20 in Europe's first referendum on the constitution, the Czech Republic belongs to a group of "at-risk" states, along with Poland, Britain and possibly France

Actually, the article's kind of interesting, because I didn't know (even though I used to live there) that the CR was considered quite as "high risk" from a Europhilic standpoint as it apparently is.

By: Jimmie

Jimmie — Thu, 24 Feb 2005 08:13:59 +0000

Exactly, Nicole. The French "contribution" thus far to the fformation of the EU has been, really, to strongarm various nations into agreeing to the more controlling part of the Constitution. I don't entirely agree with you that the French people aren't buying it because I think recent stories show they are, to one degree or another. The French government has really been selling it as a "everything to win, nothing to lose" situation and they seem to be buying a good part of that. It may not be enough to win the day but I think it'll be very close.

By: Nicole Griffin

Nicole Griffin — Wed, 23 Feb 2005 22:50:01 +0000

Whenever I think of France in the EU, I remember my one Czech student (who had voted against entering the EU) who asked me if I had ever seen the French map of Europe. When I said "no" he drew me a rough map of Europe (with most of the east noticably small) and placed France on it, but nothing else. Point being, you're right Dave, that the larger the EU gets, and therefore the more the French vote gets diluted, the more skeptical France gets. I've said before in other contexts, I'm not sure if I've ever said it at Potomac Ponderings, but I think that the French view the EU in what I term a "Napoleon-lite" context – i.e., a way to control Europe without firing a shot. Dampened enthusiasm may be largely because it's proving not to be that easy.

By: Jimmie

Jimmie — Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:34:39 +0000

I'd also like to note that this thread marks the first ever use of digiriste at The Shack.

By: Dave J

Dave J — Tue, 22 Feb 2005 22:09:51 +0000

The French establishment may come to regret that, unlike the Germans, their own population has never been indoctrinated to be ashamed of having a national identity that must therefore be submerged within the amorphous concept of being "European." The fact that the EU is no larger France writ large is part of what's starting to turn the French public off to it, at least compared to their previous enthusiasm.

By: Nicole Griffin

Nicole Griffin — Tue, 22 Feb 2005 21:30:51 +0000

Yeah, you're right, I was referring to the populace, not the leadership. It is an important distinction, but for the purposes of the constitution, it's the populace that's relevant because they're putting it to referendum.

By: Dave J

Dave J — Tue, 22 Feb 2005 17:12:34 +0000

Well, that's distinguishing French public opinion from the French political elite. It's the latter which has really been the driving force behind the "European Project" from the outset, and populated so much of Brussels with, if not its actual people, then at least its statist, centralizing, condescending and paternalistic dirigiste mindset. Going back to De Gaulle, they're the ones who've seen the whole point of European unity as being the creation of a counterweight to the US: see, e.g., the fact that France, uniquely, is a "political" member of NATO but not of its unified military command structure. The Germans were inclined to passively go along with this, but the more Europe has expanded, the more the French vision for it has been diluted (thank God) by new members who don't think that alienating the US is a good thing, let alone that that should be the strategic aim of this enormous and seeemingly never-ending project.

To generate enthusiasm, the political leadership of the new members in Eastern Europe had to try to sell their constituents the same line of bullshit that Ted Heath sold to Britain in 1973: that this is all about economics, not some grandiose political behemoth come to regulate you into the ground. But "new Europe" has 30 years' more experience to learn from, and they're rightfully and thankfully quite skeptical.

By: Nicole Griffin

Nicole Griffin — Mon, 21 Feb 2005 23:06:23 +0000

All true, except that France isn't quite as pro-Constitution as you think. It could fail there, although I doubt it. The issue of Turkey's admission, which France opposes, has chilled their opinions about the EU a bit.